$$2008 National Commercial Casino & Racino Gaming Revenue Analysis Get Cash Now
A Period of Adjustment
Oops! That giant hissing sound may be the gaming balloon that had been growing in the years, slowly losing air. But, it's got not been a tide that lowered all ships however, as some emerging and expanding gaming jurisdictions showed strong growth in 2008.
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Overall, the commercial and racetrack casino sectors (excluding Indian gaming), experienced a 3.5 percent decline in gaming revenues for 2008, generating a total of .2 billion, down some 0 million from 2007. It was the Racino sector which includes tempered this drop, because they showed a gain of almost billion in 2008, thereby bringing the Commercial sector market decline to .8 billion, or 6.7 percent. Nevada was the largest loser in 2008, dropping almost .3 billion, a many more than 50 % of which stemmed in the Nevada Strip segment.
Hunkering Down
For probably the most part, casino operators were caught relatively flat-footed by the extent with the 2008 revenue downturn, as it had not been until the third and fourth quarters when it really nosedived. Riding the crest of the year over year market growth through the country along with the accessibility to ample credit and equity funds, new construction and expansion proliferated in recent years. Today, faced with all the realities of declining, or at best stagnant demand, many of the projects are now considered over-leveraged and/or over-sized. As a result many gaming companies are wanting to renegotiate their debt - made more difficult by lower valuations - whilst paring down operational costs. The latter has become an extremely problematic conundrum when dealing using the competition, specifically in those jurisdictions that have become vying for market shares with new emerging casino projects in neighboring areas. A topic we discuss more fully within the State by State analysis section with this publication.
As an effect of the conditions the gaming industry landscape has become strewn with impending fatalities. Among the harder notable troubled firms are Station Casinos, Empire Resorts, Harrah's Entertainment, Greektown Holdings, Legends Gaming, Tropicana Entertainment, Herbst Gaming; as well as the list grows each week.
"How long will these economic conditions persist, and shall we be in the bottom yet?" are questions no-one appears being answering yet. What is clear however is always that most gaming jurisdictions will have to find out the easiest way to deal having a smaller pie.
Note:
This analysis includes only gaming revenues of licensed casinos and pari-mutuel outlets offering casino games, and not Indian gaming operations, card rooms, or small non-casino type slot locations. The whole article, including revenue tables can be acquired on our web page.
Input/Output Model
A key aspect that seems to have arisen in the ashes of the current trend is many casino projects were way too large to guide themselves. The input, with regards to investment dollars, had not been proportional to the output, in terms of net profit after debt service, compared to previously achieved results. More and/or bigger may not be better. Seeing the rise in non-gaming revenue at the Vegas Strip resorts, gave impetus towards the development more comprehensive amenities in many other jurisdictions. The flaw on this strategy however is that the costs connected with widening market penetration and occasioned-use, are significantly higher than those incurred to get the base market.
As daytripper markets be competitive, casino venues will ought to rely more plus more on his or her in-house hotel patrons, and size their properties (and expectations) accordingly. While Steve Wynn started an important trend in creating up-market mega-destinations, there simply has not been enough demand around the Strip to warrant the many other similar projects that followed that aimed with the same niche.
The trick is to strike a cheerful medium in project configurations; which naturally require less of the 'seat-of-pants' approach, and one that is more studied. A shameless plug for development consultants like ourselves.
Other Gaming Activities
Although there are no published detailed data of American Indian gaming revenues, anecdotal evidence generally seems to suggest this segment continues to be as hard hit because the Commercial sector. The two Connecticut Indian gaming installations report slot revenue of .6 billion in 2008, representing a drop around 7 percent, or almost 4 million, over doubling the 3.5 percent drop through the year before. This market is apparently still reeling through the ripple-effect of a casino expansion in Rhode Island, and the opening of slot operations in Ny and Pennsylvania.
The Arizona Department of Gaming reports that contributions based on the gaming revenue formula through the state's 23 Indian gaming casinos, are already declining every quarter in 2008 compared to the previous year; decreasing .8 percent within the first quarter, 7.5 percent within the second quarter, 9.5 percent within the third quarter, and 16.1 percent inside the fourth quarter.
Some SEC reporting Indian gaming properties report similar decreases. Seneca Gaming, which operates three Class III casinos in upstate New York, reports that while calendar year 2008 showed an almost 2 percent growth rate in gaming revenues, there were an 8.7 percent decline within the third quarter with an almost 10 percent decline in the fourth quarter of 2008, compared with 2007. Gaming revenue trends at nearby Niagara Falls, Ontario were down 1.5% in 2008 compared with 2007.
It's been a mixed-bag for state lotteries throughout the country. The North American Association of State & Provincial Lotteries reports that U.S. lotteries generated an overall total of .6 billion in sales in fiscal 2008, up about 3 percent from your previous year; yet some jurisdictions reported decreases, most notably California, which showed an 8 percent drop. Inasmuch as some of those states take prescription various fiscal year ends, it will seem that this data will not reflect the impact of third and/or fourth quarter results.
According to data provided by Equibase, horse racing pari-mutuel revenues continue their downward spiral, falling 7 percent to .7 billion in 2008, versus .7 billion in 2007.
Planned & Proposed New Expansions
As previously noted, it has been new gaming jurisdictions which have spawned much with the rise in annual casino/racino revenues on the years, in addition to their impact is apt to carry on to the near future.
Florida
Miami Dade voters approved a ballot issue that enables all of three pari-mutuels to use a casino facility of up to 2,000 slot machines. The Flagler Dog Track and Miami Jai-Alai are reportedly planning opening in late 2013 or early 2013, whilst the Calder installation in Miami Gardens has yet to announced its plans. There are numerous other proposals being considered that will further expand casino development through the state.
Illinois
The state finally got around to reissuing its tenth license, late in December, 2008; awarding it to Midwest Gaming & Entertainment, LLC for any 1,200+ game casino situated in Des Plaines just east of O'Hare. The new facility just isn't prone to open until 2013. There has additionally been some discussion about allowing an surge in per location gaming positions and slots at racetracks, although neither initiative appears to possess any traction at this time.
Kansas
The state's expanded lottery program that enables for the development of four casino gaming zones and slots at existing horse and dog tracks appears mired, as only 1 facility is presently under construction, while three other proposals were rescinded. The only bidder around the Cherokee County contract, claimed it could not compete with the new Quapaw tribal casino in Oklahoma, which can be located so close towards the state line the reason is parking lot is at Kansas. The Boot Hill Casino Resort in Dodge City is planing a December 2013 opening with 575 slots and 10 table games, along having a second phase due to open in 2013 with 875 slots and 20 table games. The state has extended the application form process for the opposite three zones until April, 2013.
Kentucky
There remains a lots of 'jockeying' going on, but the prospect of as much as eight slot parlors and racinos appears to become back for the front-burner, but likely not resolved during the current legislative session.
Las Vegas
There are about 14,000 rooms scheduled to seriously line in 2013, with all the most recent being the 390 room M Resort in Henderson. There are expansions underway at both Caesars Palace and Hard Rock; and new hotels include two components from the City Center project, as well as the Fountainebleau.
Louisiana
Pinnacle Entertainment's new casino development projects in Baton Rouge and Lake Charles, while delayed, are reported to still be on-track for opening this coming year and/or early 2013.
Maine
There is really a bill under consideration that can over double Penn National's slot machines to 3,000, at exactly the same time like a proposal that will take away the restriction that slots be located within five miles with the track. Scarborough Downs, which continues to be unsuccessful in convincing local residents to allow slots, might be considering moving to your more hospitable town.
Maryland
A referendum was approved in November, 2008 that enables for that progression of five casinos with a total of 15,000 slots, now the bidding war is afoot; although it's much less intense as the state had anticipated.
Mississippi
Grand Soleil Casino Resort in Natchez have been slated to open up in 2008, but has run into various financing issues; and even though the hotel portion is open, the riverboat is reported to spread out inside the Spring of '09. Harrah's Margaritaville Casino in Biloxi, while scaled back somewhat, continues to be on course to start this year.
New England
Massachusetts, a sleeping-giant when it comes to market potential, remains maneuvering to spread out casinos/racinos, and/or a Class III Indian gaming facility, but cannot seem to muster the political support. A recent study completed by Dartmouth University estimates that Massachusetts resident spent more than 0 million a year ago at Connecticut casinos and video slot parlors in Rhode Island and Maine. The Modern Hampshire legislature recently declined a choice to build up casinos, nevertheless the topic is likely to be revisited, particularly when Massachusetts decides to visit forward. There may also be attempts in Maine to reconsider its options.
New Jersey
Atlantic City's casinos have imposed their political will on staving from the addition of video poker machines at racetracks by recently agreeing to keep augmenting purses with the additional tax. The governor however, has appointed a brand new panel to analyze the state's sagging racing program; which ironically, can only be preserved by allowing the tracks to have slot machines; especially at the Meadowlands. (See The Nor'easter Squeeze section)
New York
Just if this looked just as if Aqueduct's 4,500 VLT facility would finally be developed, the winning bidder indicated an inability to produce the necessary 0 million fee, citing the present lending climate, and throwing the project back to the lap with the governor. Although the marketplace demand within the area could possibly be considered quite strong, the prospect more competition from nearby Belmont would have an impact on Aqueduct's underlining economic feasibility, especially due to the fact slightly under 30% of the net win is retained from the operator.
Plans to relocate Monticello Raceway in a resort complex are increasingly being reconsidered; perhaps because of both the probable opening of at ab muscles least one or perhaps two racino operations inside the NY metro area, and also the resurfacing of initiatives to development a Class III Indian gaming facility within the Catskills.
Ohio
Yet another gaming proposal will be put forth in Ohio, after last year's version was refused from the voters. This plan calls for just one casino each within the state's largest cities: Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati and Toledo. There will be the absolute minimum investment required of 0 million, at the same time as an initial licensing fee of million, plus a 33 percent tax on gaming revenue.
Pennsylvania
The Sands in Bethlehem arrives to open up within the Spring of '09, along with the new Rivers project in Pittsburgh is anticipated to become operational in August, '09; while Philadelphia's two slot facilities still wallow inside a political mire, but you are anticipated to begin construction this year.
South Dakota
The Lodge at Deadwood is slated to spread out inside the Fall of 2013, and include 300 games, 140 rooms along with a wide selection of amenities.
Texas
Legislators are proposing a voter referendum that might amend their state constitution to permit casino gambling in designated areas, as well as allow gambling on American Indian lands in Texas and also at existing racetracks.
West Virginia
The Greenbriar, the state's venerable resort facility has filed for ruptcy, but has a fresh suitor in Marriott Hotels, who've reportedly tendered an offer. State government has proffered the notion of allowing the resort to provide casino games, but this effort is at prematurily . a stage to have any traction one way or another.
Indian Gaming
A recent supreme Court ruling that restricts the taking of lands into trust on behalf of federally recognized American Indian tribes has further stymied newer and more effective Class III gaming projects through the country. Moreover, there was eleven Indian casino projects rejected through the DOI a year ago because of the company's new rule that casinos must be near enough to some reservation that tribal members are able to work on them. It may be suggested that the new Obama administration could be more sympathetic towards the development of Indian gaming projects, but this problem has yet being addressed.
Meanwhile, there are other Class III projects in the various stages of development. The Seneca casino project in Buffalo, NY, while operating a small temporary facility, has delayed an already under construction permanent facility before market rebounds. They have also expressed an curiosity about creating a casino in the Catskills. The state gaming compact with Seminoles in Florida will be challenged, and might impact their plans for larger projects. There are new Indian gaming projects set to open in Michigan and Oklahoma this year, and others are inside planning stage. Texas may allow the reopening of Indian gaming facilities and enable other venue; where there are plans afoot by the Navajos in Arizona to create additional casinos. California is poised to open up 2 to 3 new Class III casinos in 2013/10.
The Nor'easter Squeeze
Total gaming revenue in Atlantic City has declined 7.6 percent, from .9 billion in 2007 to .5 billion in 2008; with decreases continuing into 2013, as the city is finding itself in an intense comp-war using the Pennsylvania venues. At once the one casinos within the Northeast were situated in Atlantic City, where it looked just as if it could actually even eclipse the las Vegas Strip's annual gaming revenues.
Slowly however its share of the market was being encroached upon, first with the development of your large Class III gaming operation in Connecticut, and then another; slots operations in Rhode Island, after which video lottery terminals at The Big Apple racetracks, racinos in West Virginia and Delaware, and most recently Pennsylvania.
Now, using the planned opening of slot operations in Maryland, the impending opening of a new casino in Bethlehem, PA, and eventually two operations in Philadelphia, the noose is tightening around Atlantic City's future prospects. It's reliance upon day-trippers lulled it in to a false feeling of security, and yes it now finds itself needing to redefine its mission statement to "destination resort."
The only problem with this strategy however is which it is ill-equipped to pull it off. For all intents and purposes, Atlantic City is under-roomed and/or over-gamed. There is merely insufficient day-tripper market to go around, and their effective trading area is tightening, as the peripheral populations northward now/will convey more ready access with a widened supply in new York (Yonkers, and shortly at Aqueduct and perhaps Belmont), westward in Pennsylvania; and southward in Delaware, West Virginia and Maryland.
Other than the ocean access, the city's only real competitive advantages are its hotel capacity as well as the availability of table games, even though latter is planning to eventuate in Pennsylvania, and perhaps Delaware. In order to adequately compete as being a destination resort the city needs to develop additional guest rooms rather than necessarily gaming capacity. By comparison, the Nevada Strip properties - true gaming destinations, in that they certainly not need much of a day-trip market, except for your 'locals' - provide an average of .87 gaming positions per guest room; while Atlantic City's average is 2.74 positions per guest room.
It is not just a coincidence that Atlantic City's two largest hotels, the Borgata and Harrah's Marina, both ones added new rooms in 2008, were minimal impacted with the latest downturn. The Borgata experienced a gaming revenue drop of 1.6 percent, while Harrah's Marina reported a 4.9 percent increase compared to 2007. Moreover, the toughest hit venues, namely the AC Hilton, Resorts and also the Trump Marina, also contain the smallest quantity of rooms. In the meantime some from the venues are teetering on viability, such as the the Trump properties and Resorts; with all the hoped on the market from the Tropicana has been further delayed, and losing valuation.
With a steady rise in gaming revenues through 2006, town seemed prime for further development, which precipitated planning four new resort projects, each which have now been indefinitely delayed. Revel Entertainment Group's .5 billion project remains an iron skeleton, Pinnacle Entertainment has announced it will seek to sell its razed Sands site, MGM Mirage has shelved its casino plans, and Penn National appears to possess stopped its pursuit in the Bader Field airport site.
Perhaps the city should seek to return to the roots, leveraging its beachfront, and make more recreational activities and special events.
A full state by state analysis is available at our web site.
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